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US: Focus on trade balance – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts point out that the US Census Bureau will release the trade balance for March and will be a key economic release for the day.

Key Quotes

“The first two months of the year showed some narrowing in the trade deficit, and a further decline may have President Trump believing that his tariffs are helping out. However, the recent narrowing of the trade deficit may have been driven by temporary factors such as a production stop in China during the lunar New Year, as well as the build-up of inventories in the US during the second half of last year.”

“Once this inventory depletes, imports inevitably have to pick up pace again, putting renewed pressure on the trade balance.”