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CME Group FedWatch's December hike probability edged higher after FOMC minutes

on 16 August 2017, in News
CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, shows that the markets are pricing a 46.8% probability of a 25 bps rate hike in December, compared to 42% on Tuesday. Although the minutes from the July (25th & 26th) Federal Reserve’s
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GBP/USD perks up after FOMC minutes

on 16 August 2017, in News
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2876, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2905 and low at 1.2842. The dollar is somewhat weaker across the board after the FOMC minutes. Despite the softer-than-expected UK CPI figures yesterday, GBP/USD has moved out of its consolidation to the upside targeting the previous aforementioned
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USD/CAD drops to 5-day low as DXY falters post-FOMC minutes

on 16 August 2017, in News
The USD/CAD pair dropped to its lowest level since August 5 at 1.2660 after the FOMC releases its July meeting minutes in the second half of the NA session. After the initial reaction, the pair was able to erase some of its losses and is now trading at 1.2675, losing 0.7% on the day. According to
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EUR/USD hits fresh highs after FOMC minutes

on 16 August 2017, in News
EUR/USD moved to the upside after the release of the FOMC minutes. The pair reached a fresh daily high at 1.1763, up less than 25 pips above level it had before  Fed’s document.  The pair still holds a bullish tone as the US dollar weakens across the board. EUR/USD was flat for the day before
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FOMC Minutes: Policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable

on 16 August 2017, in News
The minutes from the July (25th & 26th) Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting have been published, stating that policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable. Key headlines (via Reuters): Policymakers held wide-ranging debates over inflation outlook, stock prices and financial stability – July 25-26 policy meeting minutes Some policymakers were prepared to
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USD/JPY drops to 110.50 on broad dollar weakness ahead of FOMC minutes

on 16 August 2017, in News
Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.53, down -0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 110.96 and low at 110.46. USD/JPY has dipped lower in a sharp 30 pip drop as the DXY moves lower across the board. However, we now await the FOMC minutes as the next catalyst. U.S. President Trump ends
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EUR/JPY: May highs at 125.80 in target

on 16 August 2017, in News
Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 129.66, down -0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 130.42 and low at 129.52. EUR/JPY is down but stabilising while US stocks are mixed ahead of the FOMC minutes in an environment of where the broader tone remains key for JPY given the absence of any meaningful
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U.S. President Trump ends Manufacturing Council & Strategy Policy forum

on 16 August 2017, in News
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced via Twitter that he’s ending manufacturing council and strategy policy forum. “Rather than putting pressure on the businesspeople of the Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum, I am ending both. Thank you all!”, he said. In the FX space, US Dollar turned lower across the board, with USD/JPY
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How Brexit is affecting the jobs market? – ING

on 16 August 2017, in News
Analysts at ING Bank explained that the latest jobs numbers were healthier than expected, with wage growth beating expectations. Key Quotes: “We still have our doubts that the rate of pay growth will increase to 3% next year as the Bank of England hopes, amidst elevated uncertainty and slowing economic momentum. You can read more
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ECB: Number of credit institutions headquartered in EU decreased to 3,154 in March 2017

on 16 August 2017, in News
According to the Consolidated Banking Data for end-March 2017 released by the ECB: The number of credit institutions headquartered in the EU slightly decreased from 3,167 in December 2016 to 3,154 in March 2017. Total assets of these credit institutions increased by 1.7%, from €33.41 trillion in 2016Q4 to €33.98 trillion in 2017Q1. The end-March 2017
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US GDP tracking update raised-  Nomura

on 16 August 2017, in News
Analysts at Nomura explained that today’s single-family housing starts and permits data were slightly stronger than we had expected, suggesting that residential investment in Q3 may be greater than we have previously anticipated.  Key Quotes: “While multifamily housing starts came in weaker than expected, considering the difference in construction expenditure per unit between single-family and
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ECB to roll back accomodation? – Scotiabank

on 16 August 2017, in News
Analysts at Scotiabank explained that Germany reported a 0.6% gain in GDP growth for Q2, a little below median expectations for a 0.7% gain.  Key Quotes: “Q1 growth was revised up modestly to +0.7% (+0.6% prelim) and growth rose an adjusted 2.1% in the Q2 year (vs 1.9% expected). The EUR slipped on the data.
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China: Positive data vibes all around – BBH

on 15 July 2016, in News
Research Team at BBH, notes that China reported a host of data that was mostly better than expected.  Key Quotes “If recent developments have boosted the chances of more stimulus from Japan and the UK, today’s data means that China’s policymakers may have less of a sense that urgent action is needed.  China’s economy grow
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US: CPI and retail sales report due today – Rabobank

on 15 July 2016, in News
Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that in the US, we have both a CPI and retail sales report for June. Key Quotes “This is followed later by the Empire Manufacturing index for July, industrial production figures for June and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July. Although, individually, most
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US: Amongst bulk of economic releases, focus shifts on retail sales – BBH

on 15 July 2016, in News
Research Team at BBH, suggests that after a rather subdued week for US economic reports, investors are bombarded with a barrage of reports today.  Key Quotes “The most important of which is June retail sales.  The risk is on the downside, and the market already knows that auto sales slowed sequentially.   The GDP component rose
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UK: Haldane strongly suggests policy easing would be required in August – TDS

on 15 July 2016, in News
Research Team at TDS, notes that the UK MPC dove Andy Haldane released text from a recent speech (updated to reflect yesterday’s policy meeting). Key Quotes “While there were no major surprises here, with Haldane strongly suggesting policy easing would be required in August, he did note that “a package of mutually-complementary monetary policy easing
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UK: CPI inflation expected to spike higher over the next 12-18 months – RBS

on 15 July 2016, in News
Ross Walker, Research Analyst at RBS, suggests that the UK CPI inflation data for June – the final release before the impact of sterling’s 10% trade-weighted depreciation begins to be felt – are likely to be uneventful. Key Quotes “Underlying pricing trends are muted and survey data suggest little scope for upside surprises. Sterling’s slide
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US CPI and Retail Sales Preview: Inflation at standstill while retail sustains rebound – TDS

on 15 July 2016, in News
Research Team at TDS, suggests that a rare simultaneous release of US retail sales and CPI will describe a backdrop of very subdued inflation with continued momentum in consumer spending. Key Quotes “Relative to the market expectation, we are a touch below the market for CPI and see an upside risk for consumer spending. For
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