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EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bears may wish to sit this one out, or reduce risk

  • EUR/GBP is bearish below monthly resistance and offers a number of possible trading opportunities. 
  • There has to be a tossup between sitting on the sidelines or being the contrarian at reduced risk. 

The pound is vulnerable to Brexit risks, COVID-19 and negative interest rate sentiment. However, the technical outlook is bearish while the monthly resistance rejects rallies. 

Playing to the current beat, the bias is therefore to the downside, from a technical stance. This gives rise to a number of opportunities that could come of a continuation to the downside as follows:

Monthly chart

The monthly resistance is proving a tough nut to crack and the focus remains on the downside for the cross until it is cleared. 

1D chart

As it stands, there is still the daily support getting the way of what would otehrwise have been a high probability shorting opportunity.

 The following setup offers a 1:3 risk to reward:

The above scenario could be facilitated with a trade setup at reduced risk, considering the daily support structure and bearish Brexit fundamentals for the pound.

However, a break below the support structure could give rise to a ‘buy the break and sell the resistance’ setup to target the monthly Point of Control in the low 0.88 area. 

As can be seen, this preference offers a double trading opportunity and huge downside potential on the break to monthly demand.