According to analysts at Rabobank, ECB’s economic outlook will take centre stage in its upcoming meeting and the staff projections will probably be cut, something that’s becoming a recurring theme.
“We believe that this meeting is too early for changes in the forward guidance.”
“But due to the ECB’s desire to safeguard access to credit, we expect the ECB to follow up on the current TLTRO-II with a fresh series of long-term refinancing operations in the near future.”
- Forward guidance to remain unchanged at “through the summer of 2019”.
- Despite guidance remaining unchanged, we don’t expect any rate hikes in 2019 and 2020.”
“Asset Purchase Program
- No changes to the reinvestment program or its forward guidance.”
- We expect Draghi to mention a successor for TLTRO-II, with allotment starting in June.
- This successor will probably focus on maintaining current levels of liquidity.
- That said, the ECB may save the official announcement, including the full modalities, for April.”