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Here are today’s directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!

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Daily Market Brief
November 25, 2022

 
 
 
Here are today’s directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!
 
 

 

EUR/USD  

GBP/USD  

USD/JPY  

NZD/USD  

EUR/JPY  

Hang Seng (HKFE)  

FTSE MIB (Borsa Italiana)  

Nasdaq 100 (CME)  

S&P 500 (CME)  

Dax (Eurex)  

FTSE 100 (ICE Europe)  

Gold  

Crude Oil (WTI)  

 
 
  Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities  
 
 
On Thursday, U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving Day.

On Black Friday, U.S. markets will close earlier at 1 p.m.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped a further 2.4 basis points to 3.663% posting a three-day decline.

European stocks were higher on Thursday. The DAX 40 rose 0.78%, the CAC 40 gained 0.42%, while the FTSE 100 edged up 0.02%.

U.S. WTI crude futures eased $0.15 to $77.74 a barrel, and Brent crude futures declined $0.25 to $85.13 a barrel.

Gold price added $5 to $1,755 an ounce.

 
 
  Market Wrap: Forex  
 
 
The sell-off in the U.S. dollar continued. The dollar index sank further to 105.84.

USD/JPY dropped 105 pips to 138.55.

EUR/USD added 12 pips to 1.0409. In Germany, the Ifo business climate index climbed to 86.3 in November (vs 83.7 expected).

France’s business confidence index was stable at 102 in November (vs 101 expected).

GBP/USD gained 61 pips to 1.2116.

AUD/USD rose 33 pips to 0.6766.

USD/CHF added 8 pips to 0.9435, while USD/CAD lost 17 pips to 1.3337.

Bitcoin held up well trading at $16,540.

 
 
  Morning Trading  
 
 
In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY extended rebounded to 138.75. This morning, Japan’s data showed that consumer prices in Tokyo increased 3.8% on year in November (vs +3.7% expected).

Meanwhile, NZD/USD was little changed at 0.6260. Official data released earlier today showed that New Zealand’s third quarter retail sales grew 0.4% on quarter, below 0.5% estimated.

EUR/USD was steady at 1.0410 and GBP/USD held gains at 1.2105.

Gold price advanced to $1,758 an ounce.

Bitcoin was broadly flat at $16,504.

 
 
  Expected Today  
 
 
Germany’s final readings of third quarter gross domestic product is expected to be up 1.2% on year, while December GfK consumer confidence index is estimated at -38.0.

France’s November consumer confidence index is anticipated at 79.

 
 
  Indices  
 
 
Last Close %1D %YTD
 
Dax
14,539.56
+0.78%
-8.50%
 
 
FTSE 100
7,466.60
+0.02%
+1.10%
 
 
S&P 500
4,027.26
+0.59%
-15.50%
 
 
Dow Jones
34,194.06
+0.28%
-5.90%
 
 
Nasdaq 100
11,838.72
+0.97%
-27.50%
 
 
Nikkei 225
28,383.09
+0.95%
-1.40%
 
 

     
  Today’s Economic Events  
 
  Economic Calendar    
 
Time Event Forecast Importance
 
00:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY (Nov)
3.7%
Low
 
 
00:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Nov)
3.5%
Low
 
 
00:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)
0.9%
Low
 
 
00:50
JP
Foreign Bond Investment (19/Nov)
Low
 
 
00:50
JP
Stock Investment by Foreigners (19/Nov)
Low
 
 
01:01
GB
Car Production YoY (Oct)
-2.2%
Low
 
 
04:35
JP
3-Month Bill Auction
Low
 
 
04:35
JP
40-Year JGB Auction
Low
 
 
08:00
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
-38
High
 
 
08:00
DE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3)
0.3%
Medium
 
 
08:00
DE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3)
1.2%
Medium
 
 
08:45
FR
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
79
Medium
 
 
09:50
EA
ECB af Jochnick Speech
Low
 
 
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
88.9
Medium
 
 
10:00
IT
Business Confidence (Nov)
99.4
Medium
 
 
11:10
IT
6-Month BOT Auction
Low
 
 
12:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims (Oct)
-4k
Medium
 
 
12:00
FR
Jobseekers Total (Oct)
2.897M
Low
 
 
17:00
CA
Budget Balance (Sep)
-1.9B
Low
 
 
18:00
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
Low
 
 

     
  The Analyst Views  
 

 

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0430.
 
Pivot:
1.0430
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 1.0430 with targets at 1.0395 & 1.0380 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.0430 look for further upside with 1.0450 & 1.0470 as targets.
 
Comment:
As long as 1.0430 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.2130.
 
Pivot:
1.2130
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 1.2130 with targets at 1.2080 & 1.2060 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.2130 look for further upside with 1.2155 & 1.2175 as targets.
 
Comment:
The break above 1.2130 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.2080.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 138.30.
 
Pivot:
138.30
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 138.30 with targets at 139.05 & 139.40 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 138.30 look for further downside with 138.05 & 137.80 as targets.
 
Comment:
Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

NZD/USD intraday: under pressure below 0.6293
 
Our pivot point is at 0.6293.
 
Our preference:
Under pressure below 0.6293.
 
Alternative scenario:
The upside breakout of 0.6293, would call for 0.6335 and 0.6359.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6267 and 0.6260).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

EUR/JPY intraday: rebound
 
Our pivot point stands at 143.58.
 
Our preference:
Rebound.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 143.58, expect 142.89 and 142.49.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The MACD must break above its zero level to call for further upside. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (144.12) but below its 50 period moving average (144.41).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

Hang Seng (HKFE)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 17670.00.
 
Pivot:
17670.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 17670.00 with targets at 17410.00 & 17300.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 17670.00 look for further upside with 17780.00 & 17910.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
As long as the resistance at 17670.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 17410.00 remains high.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

FTSE MIB (Borsa Italiana)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 24480.00.
 
Pivot:
24480.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 24480.00 with targets at 24880.00 & 25000.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 24480.00 look for further downside with 24350.00 & 24080.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI calls for a new upleg.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

Nasdaq 100 (CME)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 11840.00.
 
Pivot:
11840.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 11840.00 with targets at 11960.00 & 12080.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 11840.00 look for further downside with 11750.00 & 11665.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI lacks downward momentum.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: watch 4080.00.
 
Pivot:
4020.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 4020.00 with targets at 4060.00 & 4080.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 4020.00 look for further downside with 4005.00 & 3990.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

Dax (Eurex)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 14490.00.
 
Pivot:
14490.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 14490.00 with targets at 14580.00 & 14619.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 14490.00 look for further downside with 14450.00 & 14420.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
Investors have to remain cautious since these levels may trigger profit taking.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

FTSE 100 (ICE Europe)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 7451.00.
 
Pivot:
7451.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 7451.00 with targets at 7504.00 & 7536.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 7451.00 look for further downside with 7421.00 & 7390.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI lacks momentum.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

Gold Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
1748.00
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 1748.00 with targets at 1767.00 & 1775.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1748.00 look for further downside with 1740.00 & 1732.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI calls for a new upleg.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 
 
 

 

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (F3)‎ Intraday: continuation of the rebound.
 
Pivot:
77.50
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 77.50 with targets at 79.30 & 79.90 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 77.50 look for further downside with 76.80 & 76.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI calls for a rebound.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
 

 
 

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